What Drove Bitcoin’s Weekend Breakdown?
Bitcoin fell more than 7% over the weekend, sliding below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 as thin liquidity amplified selling pressure. The move triggered roughly $800 million in liquidations and pushed the market toward levels not seen since last spring.
By Saturday, bitcoin was trading near $77,800 after briefly dipping below $76,000, according to market data. The drop placed the price below the aggregate cost basis of several large holders and erased a key technical level that had supported the market through much of January.
The decline followed a bruising week for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, where sustained redemptions removed a major source of demand. Weekend trading conditions compounded the downside as fewer bids met forced selling from leveraged positions.
Investor Takeaway
ETF Outflows Mark One of the Worst Months on Record
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs ended January with roughly $1.6 billion in net outflows, making it the third-worst month on record for the products. Nearly $1.49 billion exited during the final week alone, according to data from SoSoValue.
Selling intensified late in the week. Wednesday recorded $818 million in net outflows, the largest single-day redemption of 2026 so far, followed by another $510 million on Thursday. Outflows were seen in four consecutive sessions from Tuesday through Friday, with only a marginal $7 million inflow earlier in the week.
The reversal was notable given how the year began. Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1.16 billion in net inflows during the first two trading days of January. At the time, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the products were “coming into 2026 like a lion.”
That early optimism faded as bitcoin’s price weakened, reinforcing a pattern in which ETF flows have tracked short-term market momentum rather than offsetting it.
Ether Weakens While SOL and XRP Buck the Trend
Spot ether ETFs followed bitcoin lower, posting about $353 million in net outflows for January. The final week accounted for the bulk of the damage, with roughly $253 million leaving the funds in a single session, led by redemptions from the largest products.
Ether briefly slipped below $2,300 over the weekend and was down more than 13% over 24 hours at one point, highlighting the breadth of the selloff across major assets.
By contrast, newer altcoin-linked ETFs showed relative resilience. Spot Solana ETFs recorded around $105 million in net inflows for the month, while XRP ETFs saw modest inflows of roughly $16 million overall, despite a sharp one-day outflow late in the month that broke a long streak of steady demand.
The divergence suggests that while broad exposure was being reduced, some investors continued to allocate selectively rather than exiting crypto products entirely.
Investor Takeaway
Cost Basis Levels Come Back Into Focus
The price slide also carried bitcoin below several widely watched cost benchmarks. Analysts noted that bitcoin fell under its so-called true market mean, which tracks the aggregate cost basis of the active supply, for the first time since late 2023.
“Bitcoin is now below the True Market Mean for the first time since October 2023,” said analyst On-Chain College in a market note. “This is not good for Bitcoin’s short to medium term price action.”
The move also briefly pushed bitcoin below the average purchase price of Strategy’s corporate holdings, estimated near $76,000 per coin. The company holds more than 700,000 bitcoin, making its cost basis a reference point for market sentiment during sharp drawdowns.
Some traders are now watching the mid-$70,000s as near-term support, with longer-term attention turning to the $69,000 area, which marked the peak of the prior cycle in 2021.
Macro Pressure Adds to the Risk-Off Tone
Broader market factors added to the caution. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair was viewed by some investors as unfavorable for risk assets, while geopolitical headlines and a brief U.S. government shutdown reinforced a defensive mood.
Despite the selloff, institutional interest in crypto-linked products has not vanished. Morgan Stanley filed registration statements earlier this month for new spot bitcoin and Solana ETFs, suggesting firms continue to prepare for longer-term demand even as short-term sentiment weakens.
For now, the combination of ETF redemptions, broken technical levels, and macro uncertainty has left bitcoin vulnerable to further swings, with liquidity conditions likely to remain a key factor in determining how quickly the market finds its footing.
